Bullish week on Bitcoin, which largely dominates the market while most of the altcoins generate very few gains. Bitcoin is trading around $13,000 (€11,600) on July 10, an increase of nearly 15% over the last seven days.
According to CoinMarketCap, market capitalisation is up to $352 billion from $324 billion last Wednesday. Bitcoin’s share of this capitalisation continues to rise and reaches 65%. Volatility on Bitcoin had decreased last weekend but increases again, with a 9% move on July 8.
The altcoin market is way weaker. Although relative increases against fiat currencies can be observed, they remain, on the whole, very small compared to Bitcoin performance. Most of the altcoins are in trouble: Ethereum (ETH) seems to break down a major support against Bitcoin, Ripple (XRP) is heading towards the lowest value in satoshis since December 2017.
An ”altcoin season” is really needed for these values, but there is no sign of a change in the market cycle at this stage, with performance remaining on the Bitcoin side. The only two altcoins that are performing at the top of the marketcap this week are Tezos (XTZ) and Maker (MKR), which are earning 12.11% and 17.44% respectively and are included in our list of recommended assets.
Here are the main price levels to watch out for:
On July 2, the Bitcoin price bounced back to the $9,700 (€8,600) level and has not, for the time being, reached the long-term buyback objectives identified around $9,200 at first. However, this rebound seems to be slowing down on July 10, with a seller’s rejection at $13100 ($11700€). If this level is confirmed as a resistance in the coming days, the Bitcoin chart will probably enter a compression triangle pattern. The volatility will decrease and the price will evolve between $9700 and $13100 with less and less fluctuation.
It is only if we break out of this triangle, with a sudden return of volatility, that we will have information on the next clear direction that Bitcoin will take. At this stage, it is therefore more prudent to wait until the situation becomes clearer before entering new positions on the market.
For those who have bought bitcoins previously, there is no sell signal before a clear breakdown from this triangle. A bullish exit from this triangle or a direct continuation of the current uptrend will be considered as a new buy signal.
Against the Euro, Ethereum gained 4.88% compared to last Wednesday, at $310 (€275). But this figure hides that Ethereum is in jeopardy against Bitcoin. Since May 16, Ethereum has lost nearly 30% compared to Bitcoin and continues to struggle facing the exponential increase of Bitcoin, which “capture” a large part of the market’s capital.
Ether’s price against Bitcoin is currently falling under the major support of 0.025 btc/eth, which hold since March 2017. Even if Ethereum is making sideways against fiat currencies, the situation is likely to deteriorate further.
Going under this support of 0.025 btc/eth is a sell signal. There are no other very solid technical supports before the area of 0.016 btc/eth, which would represent a 35% decrease compared to Bitcoin. The market movements over the next few days will therefore be interesting. This sell scenario will be invalidated if the chart of Ether against Bitcoin goes back above 0.025 btc/eth with a powerful bullish candle.
Ripple (XRP) is a good example of the disappointment about altcoins against Bitcoin. XRP is down 1.45% against the Euro over the last seven days, trading at around $0.39 (€0.35). XRP performance is poor in the first half of 2019.
Since the beginning of the year, XRP has lost 68% to Bitcoin. An intermediate support at 40,000 satoshis, which had caused a strong bounce in September 2018, broke down at the end of June. There is no indication of a trend reversal at this stage, and it is even likely that the XRP chart against to Bitcoin will move towards the major support at 12500/14500 satoshis.
Without short-term reversal signals, we stay bearish on XRP. The XRP chart against Bitcoin would have to go back above the 40,000 satoshis level to begin to reverse the weekly downward trend observed on this asset.
This graph represents the percentage increase currently achieved by 14 cryptoassets to return to their all-time high. Except from BNB, which achieved a new all-time high in June 2019, we observe that Bitcoin is much closer to returning to its all-time high of December 2017 (64% retracement already achieved) compared to all other altcoins.
Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- Decred (DCR): +17,35%
2- MakerDAO (MKR): +15,62%
3- Bitcoin (BTC) : +15,15%
1- Chainlink (LINK) : -15,69%
2- QTUM : -9,28%
3- Lisk (LSK) : -8,23%
Hot crypto news of the week
While Libra, Facebook’s cryptocurrency project, has generated almost unanimous opposition from regulators and governments, PBOC, a Chinese regulator, has chosen a pragmatic approach by redoubling its efforts to propose an alternative. China, which has real control over its currency, the Yuan, has indeed been working on its digital currency for several years, severely limiting the availability of cash and entering into partnerships with semi-private actors such as Wechat and Alipay, which now offer the majority payment solutions. Facebook and Libra association partners being almost absent on Chinese territory, a “crypto-yuan” would be a strong competition for Libra in China.
Euronext is positioning itself on STOs: the financial market player has invested €5 million in the startup Tokeny, a specialist in security tokens that represent financial products mainly on the Ethereum platform, Euronext has acquired 22.5% of Tokeny’s shares in the transaction.
The Tezos blockchain also proves its ambition on the STO market. The Blockchain carried by Polytechnician Arthur Breitman has entered into a partnership with the Brazilians of BTG Pactual on the tokenization of financial assets for a total amount of $ 1 billion.
The blockchain invites itself to the Tour de France cycling competition. The National Frequency Agency (ANFR) will test this technology for the first time. The idea is to properly manage free frequencies in areas not covered by 4G to ensure the best possible distribution.
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